Two years ago (Nov 14, 2019) we were told that NOAA was planning to do away with all paper charts and all electronic charts based on them (RNC), to be completed by end of 2024—46 months from now. This was the famous Sunsetting article, complete, indeed, with a picture of the sunset. All charts after that date will be ENC or custom paper charts based on the ENC format.
Today NOAA announced the first printed chart that has been converted to ENC only, Lake Tahoe, chart 18665. From now on, this is ENC only—or design a paper chart of all, or any part of it in ENC format, and print it in color or have it printed for you. This is the new NCC (NOAA Custom Chart) program, which you can experiment with right now for any NOAA chart to see how it works. Here is the online NOAA NCC tool for this, along with a video on the process. I hope to supplement what they have with some instructions of our own in the near future.
Goodbye Chart 18665.
I believe the NCC printed products will eventually be even better than the present paper charts, but this will take a while. Mariners have to get used to using ENC, which our book on Electronic Chart Navigation will help, and also the NCC tool will improve. Right now the main and maybe only drawback to ENC is their coverage of land. We don't sail there, but we do in fact look at it, and rely on it for navigation. Some nations do a better job on ENC land coverage than the US does, but overall the US has exceptionally good ENC.
A detailed reference on the use of ENC
But this is all digital business these days, GIS (geographic information systems) in particular, and NOAA has access to every possible set of GIS data for land information. Every building, every road, every elevation contour, and eventually this info will be incorporated into the new NCC.
So as of today we have fair warning. The camel's nose is under the tent. It is time to start thinking about ENC... with that in mind, we have a new online course we are about to announce on Electronic Chart Navigation. Maybe about a month out.
This document is an index to the several articles and videos Starpath has available on the subject of GRIB files and their use in marine weather analysis and routing. You can skim through this to go directly to individual topics. Practice exercises are given at the end.
What is a GRIB File?
Use of numerical weather model forecasts by individual mariners is an ubiquitous component of modern marine weather. Using almost any navigation program these days connected to a wireless source on land or at sea, you can press a button to generate the latest wind, waves, and currents forecast across the chart with forecasts extending out a week or more.
The forecasts come to us in a digitized format called GRIB, standing for gridded binary. It is a vector product, meaning it is all numbers and symbols, but when rendered in an appropriate software program ("GRIB viewer app") it can appear as a graphic map of the isobars, wind vectors, rain distribution, and other parameters, laid out on a Lat-Lon grid.
The GRIB standard was developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) specifically as a way to transfer weather data in an efficient, standardized manner amongst meteorologists and mariners. The grid is a Lat-Lon lattice of points, with digital values (binary data) presented only at those specific points. The distance between points on the grid is the resolution of the file. This can vary from as large as 1º (60 nmi) intervals to as small as 1.3 km (0.7 nmi), which is about the finest step size available outside of the laboratory.
A GRIB weather map at 0.5º resolution over a 10º x 10º area including surface wind and pressure every 6 hr for 3 days (a tremendous amount of information) will be about 30 kb in size. File size increases very roughly proportional to the number of parameters, but increases as the square of the resolution and area covered.
Several apps let the viewer request the latest grib forecast from a specific model from within the app, and these generally estimate the file size as you define what you wish to request.
Terminology: We often hear or say something like, "Have you downloaded the Grib?," or "What does the Grib tell us," and so on. Usually this is not ambiguous, but we should keep in mind that "Grib" is not a thing; it is a format. It is like saying "What does the PDF tell us? The term Grib alone does not tell us at all what we are looking at. This could be a wind forecast from the GFS model or a wave forecast from the WW3 model. Use of the word Grib in such discussions requires clear understanding of the context. Likewise, the reference to "a" Grib file, generally refers a single file, but one that includes multiple forecasts over several hours or several days.
The following links contain information related to use of GRIB files
This note on qtVlm routing is part of our sequence of articles on the Applications of Weather Data in Grib Format. We have similar demos of routing with other applications.
[ We also have now a new more basic discussion of this process
qtVlm is a free, donation-supported navigation and weather software program for both Mac and PC computers, as well as mobile devices. It is an internationally popular product with versions in multiple languages. It is the leading program worldwide for virtual tracking and taking part in ocean races presented online. It is a versatile navigation program as well as weather resource. See also notes in the Starpath Glossary.
We cover charting aspects elsewhere; we have a video playlist on several topics, as well as a cheat sheet on specific functions; here we just take a brief look at the app for routing computations, which is of course tied to its display of grib formatted numerical weather and ocean predictions. The program includes extensive functionality, which means there are numerous nested menus, some of which are interrelated. In short, there is a learning curve, as is with any such versatile program. So we start by just focusing on what we need to create a basic route, and then we will come back to the numerous ways it offers to fine tune and optimize the results further.
We will list the steps here and then add a video demo of the process.
Step 1. When you download and install the app, be sure to load the "maps," which in this case will be the high-res base maps.
Step 2. The default display shows a daylight terminator which is very handy when underway or when planning a voyage, but for training and practice if you find it distracting it can be toggled off at menu View/Show-Hide/Night Zones.
Step 3. Load a Grib forecast (review earlier notes on gribs) that will cover the range of the route you want to compute, and long enough to let the vessel finish with its known polar data. In this example, we want to do summertime ocean routing using archived wind data from July, 201o that we have stored on the computer. Thus the steps are: menu Grib/Grib Slot 1/open and navigate to the file to load it into slot 1.
Doing these historic runs, you will get a warning that the grib data is old, and consequently it will not show on the screen. Click the clock icon in the middle of the menu bar and set the grib time to match the first forecast loaded. Using live data this will not likely arise, as the newest live data is some 4 or 5 hr old at best.
The second from the right magnifier icon (with a square inside) will center the view on the active grib data.
If you do not see the grib data, but you do see elevation and rivers on the land, then you have an overlay turned on that could be hiding the wind data. Click the menu chart icon "O" (online charts) to toggle this on and off.
Step 4. Load the polar diagram you wish to use. It can accept files in the .pol format or the .csv format, with the separators being semicolons. See related polar format discussion. To load the polar use menu Boat/Boat Settings. Note we are not using menu Boat/Polars. That will be used to study the polar once it is loaded. Once in Boat/Boat Settings, add a name and or model of your boat then open the Polars tab below it. Navigate to your polar and import it. We can leave the other settings in default choices.
Step 5. Check the polar. Menu Boat/Polars/Wind polar analysis. Check all TWS (true wind speeds) to see if it looks as expected. Then go back to just one wind, and notice that you can click on the curve to read the data. We are not getting into this now, but if you want to change anything in the polar you can do it in Menu Boat/Polars/Wind polar editor.
Step 6. Set start and end points. At the desired start point, right click within the grib area and make a mark. Give it a name and click OK. We can leave all defaults as is. Do the same with the destination point.
Step 7. Right click anywhere on the chart and chose Create a routing.
Give the route a name
Turn off Routing from boat
Confirm that start and finish are the points you want—from drop downs; top is start, bottom finish. If the points are not there, cancel, add the marks (POI), and come back.
Turn on Keep Starting Date and type in the initial time of the grib forecast installed (default is month, day, year). Later we can use other start times. Select the month, type it in, and just keep typing.
Leave on Isochrone color based on.... Turn on Automatic parameters, and move slider ball to far right (Best accuracy).
Leave on Convert to Route using... at the bottom should be left on; letter "R" is fine for now.
Then Press OK to create the routing
(If anything is not right then when done, just say OK, then Cancel, and from menu Routings select delete routing, and do it again.)
Step 8. Convert to Route. When done, it presents the ETA, duration, and computation time. Click OK. Then we get the opportunity to convert this routing to a route. The former is the result of an optimization using isochrones (just completed); it is a sequence of isochrone points. Unless we need to study the displayed isochrone solution in more depth (discussed later), then the logical next step is convert it to a route, which means converting the isochrone points along the fastest path to a series of POI.
To do this, we first we Simplify the route (series of POI), and we have two ways to do that (Maximum and Optimum). This process removes excess POI along the route, such as intermediate ones along a straight line. Maximumsimplification is the quickest solution, and removes the most waypoints, but it might not leave us with the fastest route to the finish. Optimum simplification takes a more careful look at each point. It takes a bit longer; removes less points; but never loses ETA, and usually improves it. The computation time difference is rarely large, so it is usually best to do an Optimum Simplification.
Once the route has been simplified in the optimum way, we can still Optimize this route even more. This is an important final step to get the most efficient route using the criteria we selected. This process goes back over each point with a more sophisticated look at the best way forward. It is an improvement over a pure isochrone solution.
Thus the sequence is:
1. Create the Routing
2. Convert to a Route
3. Simplify optimum
4. Optimize
Once this is done, the routing will be moved from the routings list (menu Routings) to the routes list (menu Routes) and we can then look at details.
Step 9. In menu Routes/Edit Route select your route. Logbook shows the conditions at steps along the route. You choose for these to be every so many minutes or after a specified course change. Use the gear icon to select what you want to see—click it, select ones to see, then click the gear again to set them. Histogram is an interesting way to look at plots of various parameters along the route. Statistics summarizes a few parameters of the whole route. To export the route as a GPX file, use menu Routes/Export route.
Below is a video sample of an optimum route computation.
Routing example with no special conditions [17m:33s].
qtVlm has many options and restrictions that can be placed on the computation. Like most other apps, you can define boundaries to block the route from certain areas or passes, plus qtVlm can route around a course of marks, or through specific gateways, which adds a layer of versatility to the solution. This is accomplished by optimizing along a pathway. In qtVlm, a pathway is a series of waypoints, what might be called a route in other programs. Routings, routes, and pathways have distinctions in qtVlm.
Other routing adjustments you can make include:
• With gust data in the grib, you can reduce the polar efficiency if the gusts are a certain percentage above the wind speed.
• You can avoid areas with wind greater than some value
• With wave data in the grib (now part of the GFS forecasts) you have several options
— Avoid areas with wave height greater than a specified value
— Use a wave polar that reduces or enhances wind polar values depending on the true wind speed, height of waves, and angle of the waves relative boat heading
— Engage a cross seas correction to the wind polar based upon height of the swell and the angle between the wind waves and the swell.
• You can limit the TWA to keep the routing from heading closer to the wind than you want or more downwind than you want, thus overriding the polar diagram.
• You can adjust the minimum time between successive tacks or jibes as well as specifying a time penalty for each.
• When cruising, you can set the minimum sailing speed before the engine comes on, and then what boat speed should be used when under power.
• You can also chose a reduced polar efficiency when sailing at night.
• Without changing the polar itself, you can temporarily enhance or diminish polar performance by a percentage factor for upwind or downwind sailing.
• If the present observed wind is not matching the forecast winds in the grib being used, you can scale the grib winds to match them. This factor can be set to gradually fade into the pure grib wind over a fixed period as you anticipate the forecast improving.
This note on OpenCPN routing is part of our sequence of articles on the Applications of Weather Data in Grib Format. We have similar demos of routing with other applications.
Optimum vessel routing across forecasted wind, seas, and currents patterns based on the known vessel performance in various conditions is the primary goal of modern marine weather technology. We can do this manually with graphic weather maps we obtain at sea by radiofax or email, and we can do it semi-manually using numerical weather model forecasts we receive in grib format by satcom or HF-radio.
We can also now do this fully automatically using dedicated software that perform the optimum routing computations for us. In principle, if all input is correct, this would yield the best result and indeed be the optimum route. Experienced mariners know, however, that the wind forecasts are rarely right in all details, and that special conditions such as relative angles of wind and swells can notably affect the performance of the vessel relative to what is expected in its polar diagram of vessel speeds for various wind speeds and angles. Correcting for waves is even more problematic, and ocean currents remain elusive, even with the best ocean models to guide us. In short, the process is not going to be plug and play. Success will still depend on individual's knowledge of weather and their ability to evaluate not just the quality of the forecast, but also the quality of the computed solution.
All optimum routing apps require several inputs to be set correctly or the computation will not work. The various apps differ in how easy it is to insure this is done right and in the detail of the error messages given to help. In any event, for every app that does these computations, it is helpful to have a cheat sheet to follow until the process is mastered in your favorite app.
Furthermore, beyond the basic requirements to compute the route, there is a large layer of adjustments and scaling factors available to optimize the route. Although the apps have some overlap in the most basic corrections available, they do differ notably in the full range of such corrections.
But before we tackle these in future articles, we look at the basics of running a route computation in several apps, as in this example with OpenCPN. We also have a couple videos showing the process, but these assume we have the basic details in place beforehand. Here is a summary of the basic steps followed by a video illustration.
OpenCPN Weather Routing Plugin Mac and PC versions seem to behave the same.
(1) Polar diagram files can be any of three file types (.csv, .pol, or .txt), but they must all be in the same basic structure, shown below. (Note: sometimes Windows hides file extensions. If so, open File Explorer and under "View" turn on file extensions.)
Above is the CSV (comma separated values) format. You can use semicolons as well as commas for this. These would be in neat columns when viewed in a spreadsheet, which is one way to create the file, although the WeatherRouting plugin has a very convenient creator and editor for polar files—we do not need the separate plugin called Polar_pi.
If you replace the commas with tab you get the POL format. Example below.
Replace the comma in the CSV with a space and you get the TXT format.
These three are all really the same. True Wind Angles down the first column; True Wind Speed headers along the first row; then subsequent rows are the vessel speeds at the indicated TWA and TWS. The first element of row 1 is sometimes just "twa," but this does not matter. Sometimes the polar includes an inserted first line being the name of the sailboat model.
(3) Save only one polar per boat for now. Later you can mix polars for various conditions (high wind, low wind, upwind, downwind, big seas, crossing seas).
(4) Be sure the polar covers all wind speeds along the route. If wind picks up to 25 and highest polar wind is 20, it might not run. Right click any place along the general route area on the grib file and choose "Weather Table" to get a digital meteogram of wind vs time at that location.
(5) Be sure the starting and destination points are within the wind field. Setting up all digitally within the plugin, these points are not shown on the chart as you set them, so typos may not be apparent. Recall S Lat and W Lon are negative values. See notes below on better ways to set up the route.
(6) Be sure the forecast duration is long enough to get to destination with the given polar. Else it might just fail and not say why. Try a quick test with shorter route. There are ways to fake this with extending last winds or using climatic winds, but you then get fake results.
If you get the message "polar failed" and it does not compute, then the cause is most likely in the list above.
Set up procedure after weather route plugin is installed and enabled.
Step 1. Drop a mark at the desired start point, then right click to properties, and give it a name; likewise with the end point.
Step 2. Open the WeatherRouting plugin, and with this open, right click the start point (be sure it highlights) and choose Weather Route Position. This will add it to the positions side of routing window. (You can do this at any point on the chart, it does not have to be a mark, but in that case you will not get a graphic confirmation of the location.) Do the same thing with the end point, to get it into the positions list.
Step 3. Check the positions list to make sure they are both there. If needed, edit the configuration window and the positions window from the main menu bar controls. Click anywhere in the routing window to show the menu. Note: you might have to try both right and left clicks to get an item highlighted.
Step 4. Load a wind grib file that covers both start and end points, and be sure it extends far enough in time to get the boat to the end with the polar(s) chosen. You can also load waves and currents, as covered later.
Step 5. Set the forecast to the first of the sequence for now. This can be changed later.
Step 6. Viewing the routing panel (Positions and Configurations), use the position dropdown to load your start and end points. These must be in the positions panel to show up in the dropdown.
Step 7. In the Start panel click Grib Time, and check is consistent with grib forecast showing.
Step 8. In the Boat panel click Edit. You will initially see samples provided with the program. Do a select all and remove them, then press Add, and navigate to your polar file, which must be stored in the proper place explained below—it should default to that folder. Then "Save as Boat" and give it a name. You might also open the polar to confirm the maximum wind speed included, because the computation cannot proceed through higher winds.
Step 9. Check in the Data Source Panel that we are using Grib data. Close the polar window and check the path in the Boat Panel to be sure you are using the one you saved. If not, click the three dot menu beside it to assign the right boat. Then close the configuration window. We can leave the rest of the settings on default to get started.
Step 10. Leave Last Valid unchecked and Climatology disabled. We will treat inadequate forecast duration another way. Close config window. Return to the main Weather Routing window, select the route we are working on, say two Hail Marys, and press Compute.
________
Once a route is computed, the parameters showing in the configuration window are chosen in the menu View/Settings. You must click the weather routing window to show the menu.
The menu View/Plot offers an insightful way to look over the route, both as computed (Current Route) or as you look over alternatives (Cursor Route).
Completed weather routes are not automatically saved when closing the program. The Export button at the bottom of the config window copies the route to the Routes Manager list. It arrives there as a track, but can be converted to a route. Either can be exported as a GPX file.
Here is a video illustration of the creation of an optimum route:
___________
Side Note: If you make a route on the chart, say C to D, then right click the route and choose Weather Analysis, it will both load these two points into the positions panel, and it will create what looks like a normal configuration in the configurations panel, but when you open it, you will see the start and end are filled in but grayed out.
When you then compute that one, it will look at the course C to D, then look at the wind speed and direction at the start time from the grib, figure the true wind angle from that, then look into the polar to find the expected boat speed, and use that as the average speed for the whole course and give you that speed and the time it takes at that speed. That is not an optimum route; no isochrones were computed. It is just a rough estimate of the time assuming the wind does not change. This result is roughly what qtVlm calls the VBVMG (very best VMG) route, but it uses only one step to get there.
To go from that set up to a real optimum route computation, just delete that configuration, make a new one, add C and D to it, and run as above. Then it will crank out the isochrones.
We have several articles and videos on getting started with GRIB files cited at the end of this note. Here we take a look at various applications of this powerful technology. It would be too much to cover in any useful manner in one place, so we present this index to specific topics with linked video demos. We initially focus on a couple free viewers that we use in our online course, and then at the end show how these analyses can be expanded upon with several outstanding commercial products.
1. Global model weather forecasts for ocean navigation
This was the original application of the data, which was spearheaded by Saildocs using Airmail for HF radio communications and the PC program ViewFax for viewing the grib data. ViewFax remains a versatile way to view and obtain the files, along with other marine weather data.
We started our introduction to grib files using the grib viewer app XyGrib, so we will show samples from it whenever possible. We also look at GRIB files in the nav app OpenCPN that we use in both the coastal nav and marine weather courses. Our goal is then to also include qtVlm which is a powerful program that does both navigation, grib viewing, and grib file sourcing. All three apps have both a PC and a Mac version. We have an introductory article on XyGrib that includes a short video on loading a global model
The sample below looks at more details of using a global forecast of an ocean route.
We set up a global model display to look like the OPC maps. By comparing surface and 500 mb maps we get an insight into the dependability of a forecast [13m:32s].
The same files we download from XyGrib or by email request from Saildocs, can also be shown in OpenCPN—recall that OpenCPN has a way to view the files, but does not directly download the files, although it does assist with preparing an email request for some of the saildocs files. See models available at Saildocs. For the most part, XyGrib offers a more informative way to display most GRIB files than does OpenCPN, but OpenCPN has a super convenient way to load georeferenced weather map images, upon which we can overlay the GRIB model forecasts for improved insight into both the model forecast and the graphic map image from a weather agency such as OPC. This process is illustrated in Section 5 below.
There are some 14 global weather models internationally, about half of which offer free access to their data in grib format. A couple of the popular ones are:
For historical analysis we can use re-analyzed model forecasts. These global data are available every 6 hr from ECMWF and GFS. When you use this data starting at say18z, July 10, 1990 for 10 days, you can get one map every 6 hr, but they are not forecasts, but the equivalent of surface analyses valid at those synoptic times. It is an excellent way to study past races or voyages.
Here is another example of viewing grib files in a free app with both Mac and PC versions called qtVlm.
Loading and viewing grib files in qtVlm [11m:35s].
2. Global ocean model forecasts of wind waves and swells
We can access the US WW3 model in almost any navigation and grib viewer apps. The model has an extensive set of parameters (see definitions in the Background article.) The German weather service, Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD), also have a high-quality ocean program with a global wave model (GWAM), European wave model (EWAM) and a higher resolution coastal wave model (CWAM). XyGrib will download WW3, GWAN, and EWAM. Only WW3 is available from Saildocs. (All are available from Expedition or LuckGrib.)
Below we compare two global wave models in XyGrib. Recall the grib2 wave parameters listed below, which shows that both models use the same parameters, but they have different abbreviations for them.
Sample page from Panoply showing content of two grib files from XyGrib
Here I have loaded both files into Panoply, which not only displays the data graphically but also shows exactly what is included. We have videos on the use of Panoply.
A video comparison of WW3 and GWAN in XyGrib with notes on wave display [12m:13s].
3. Ocean model for currents and water temperature
The most popular ocean model for global currents is the US RTOFS model. It is available from Saildocs. Other global ocean current models include the US Navy models HYCOM and NCOM, the latter of which is a regional model, generally offering the best current data when available.
XyGrib v1.2.6 does not offer ocean current data download, but it does have a currents parameter to be shown if the data are obtained elsewhere. To get RTOFS grib file, send this in the body of a mail to query@saildocs.com
Change the Lat Lon box to what you want. This is for every 6h out to h144 (6 days). It provides current direction and speed as well as sea surface temperature (called WTM). The 0.08º (4.8 nmi, 8.9 km) is the resolution.
The model is run once a day, completing at about 1700Z. Each run starts with a 24 hr hindcast and produces ocean surface forecasts starting at 12z the previous day for every 3h to h48, then every 6h till h48, then every 12h to h192 (8 days).
A video display of RTOFS data in XyGrib [7m:43s].
4. Regional model forecasts for inland and coastal sailing
The main data sources for US regional models are HRRR, and the CONUS or Regional versions of NBM, NAM, and NDFD. In other parts of the world, the best regional data will typically be a WRF model run by a local university, institute, or commercial company. Samples can be seen at OpenSkiron and within XyGrib for Europe, and at Expedition Marine for other parts of the world, especially near AU and NZ.
HRRR is the only hi-res US dataset that is readily available to free GRIB viewers, because we can get it from Saildocs. You might note that NAM and NDFD are also available from Saildocs, but you will discover that the NAM they offer is only 12-km resolution (we need the 3 km version) and the NDFD they offer is only the oceanic version (10 km). XyGrib also has only 12 km data for their version of NAM CONUS. See our note on NDFD: Oceanic, CONUS, and Regional.
The HRRR model (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) is a 3-km model, updated every hour. The model is updated every hour with forecasts that go out 18h. The runs that occur at the synoptic times are special in that they then go out 48h, with hourly forecasts to 18h, then 3h forecasts to 48h. We can get these extended HRRR forecasts from saildocs. (The 2.5-km NAM data goes out for 2.5 days, but we need special sources such as LuckGrib to get these data.)
For now, we can practice with regional forecasting using HRRR data in US waters (inland and coastal) or any of several hi-res models available from within XyGrib for European inland and coastal waters. For HRRR data we can use this request to query@saildocs.com
It is important to use the decimals on the position, as these can be very large files at 3-km resolution. Even this area maybe more than we want. Modify the Lat Lon coordinates for your location. For minimum files omit the PRMSL and REFC
A video demo of displaying HRRR data from Saildocs in the XyGrib viewer [9m:45s].
5. Overlay model forecast winds on weather map and cloud photo images
A major contribution that OpenCPN makes to weather work at sea is its ability to show selected model wind forecasts in grib format overlaid onto official, up-to-date weather maps made by the OPC or their counterparts around the world (UK Met, DWD, BOM, and others). Once the grib file is in hand, this overlay can be accomplished in a few seconds. It is a powerful way to evaluate the model forecasts. The procedure is implemented with the weatherfax plugin, which can be downloaded from within the program. We have several videos on the use of this tool and a note on how to add your own files to the list. Here is another example.
Overlay of GFS winds and pressure on an OPC map and on a GOES West satellite image [7m:40s].
The program qtVlm also has a sophisticated means of importing and displaying georeferenced weather maps and other related images. They are not shipped with the program, but they are very easy to import and save so that each run brings the latest maps. Here is a video of the process using qtVlm. Expedition also has a similar functionality.
Loading and viewing weather map images in qtVlm [11m:48s].
6. Probabilistic forecasts from ensemble forecasts and model blends
We get now to the modern aspect of using grib format of model forecasts, namely the use of standard deviations in the forecasts and probabilistic wind forecasts. In the past we would say "There will always be a forecast, and they are not marked good or bad," but that is no longer true—providing we have access to all the newest data.
Ensemble models, such as the US GEFS and the Canadian GEPS, compute 20 or so solutions (see Background notes) at each synoptic time and then provide us with an average of those solutions, along with the standard deviation of the set, which is in practice an uncertainty level. A wind forecast of 12 kts ± 2 kts is obviously much better forecast than 12 kts ± 10 kts.
The National Blend of Models (NBM CONUS) also includes similar standard deviation parameters. On the other hand, the NBM Oceanic domain includes actual wind probabilities deduced from the very many sources they take into account.
This dataset includes these probabilistic winds: P25 is the wind at the high end of the lowest 25% of all wind solutions at that point; P75 is wind at the low end of the highest 25% of all wind solutions; and the mean wind called P50 is the average of all solutions between P25 and P75. The P50 wind represents the middle 50% of all wind solutions for that point. Likewise there is a P10 and P90. A P90 wind speed of 20 kts means that 10% of all solutions at that point were higher than 20 kts, and so on. Or you could say, there is only a 10% chance that the wind will be greater than 20 kts at that point and time. This is precisely the type of forecasting we need when we have crucial routing decisions to make. See Evaluating a Weather Forecast.
These data are presented in standard grib2 format, but they are special parameters and not many apps have adapted to them yet. To my knowledge the only readily available source and display of this full range of data is the app called LuckGrib which is app for Mac computers and for iOS tablets and phones. Each app is a one time fee of $25 in their respective app stores; there is no charge for data downloads. The data can be obtained directly from NOAA and the viewed in a free program like Panoply, but this is very time consuming process. LuckGrib has a very convenient interface and certainly state of the art file handling and graphic display. Below is a brief demo of these probabilistic forecasting features. I am sure that more apps will adapt to these parameters once the utility of the data becomes better understood and tested. Several apps show the ensemble runs but not yet the standard deviations.
A quick look at GFS compared to GEFS standard deviations and NBM Oceanic probabilistic wind forecasts [12m:38s].
7. View sea ice coverage from RTOFS in LuckGrib
If you plan to travel to high latitudes, RTOFS as of this year also provides sea ice coverage. We can obtain and view this new ice data in LuckGrib—Saildocs has RTOFS currents but not yet the ice data. See the notes above on RTOFS model runs.
Looking at several northern waterways for sea ice coverage with LuckGrib [3m:44s].
8. Compute optimal sailing route
We come now to what is in one sense the ultimate goal of working with model forecasts in GRIB format, namely using that data along with the known performance of our boat in various wind conditions (polar diagrams) to compute the mathematically optimum route across the forecasted wind field, taking into account forecasted ocean currents and waves as they might apply. There is a section of Modern Marine Weather devoted to this topic that highlights the precautions we must keep in mind when relying on such results. It is crucial to go over those points before using such data, computed yourself or provided by third party services. Recall the joke of being told when asked for directions that "you cannot get there from here." For a sailor who does this routing incorrectly from the beginning (often traced to inadequate polar data), this might no longer be a joke!
There are several apps that provide optimum routing. The historic leader in this field has been the PC navigation program Expedition, which not only provides the GRIB files and does the routing computations, but has state of the art procedures for collecting and analyzing performance data so the best polar diagrams can be made. It also has many other custom features, which makes the investment worth it for the majority of racing sailors, worldwide. Cruising or day sailors may not need the full power of that app. There are several books on the use of Expedition.
A short overview of optimum routing using Expedition [18m: 23m].
Another sophisticated routing solution is the add-on routing option to LuckGrib for Mac or iOS devices. That link also includes a detailed discussion of the routing process. The key to any good routing solution is the ability it offers to study the proposed route to learn why it was presented as the "optimum" and now sensitive that solution is to other factors. Luckgrib has several unique approaches to this function.
A short overview of optimum routing using LuckGrib [12m: 34m].
All good routing apps include numerous filters to be applied, such as avoid winds greater than a specified speed, or waves bigger than a specified height, motor if the wind speed is below something, or sailing speed below something, or scale the polar boat speeds up or down by a factor, or scale the model winds by some factor, or scale the effect of current by some factor, add so many seconds for every tack or jibe, don't sail closer upwind than some value or downwind by some value, and so on. There are many, depending on the app.
We do not get into any of these details here, but leave those to our textbook and online courses, and to the several other books and online seminars on the topic. The job at hand is just to show a few solutions to see what they look like, and to note a couple options for practicing with this on your own.
Also to consider is the Time Zero app, which is another popular commercial app for Windows. It evolved from the collaboration of Nobeltec and the MaxSea app, which was one of the pioneers in optimum weather routing.
As for open source or free products, both OpenCPN and qtVlm have both Mac and PC routing functions. Below is an article and video demo on the OpenCPN version.
A video demo of OpenCPN routing procedure [22m:55s]. Details are presented in a separate article.
Optimum routing is a key part of qtVlm, which is a popular app for following along and taking part in ocean races online. It is a free program for both Mac and PC, with grib file sourcing as well as routing. Even though this is a free program, its routing function is among the most sophisticated of the offerings.
A video demo of qtVlm routing procedure [17m:33s]. Details are presented in a separate article.
Optimum sailboat routing in local coastal or inland waters is the exciting frontier of this technology. This must be done with the regional models, with special adjustments of the routing app routines. We will add notes on this process shortly.
This, it turns out, is not a new technology. The Ocens company in Seattle had a grant to distribute the QuikSCAT data in GRIB format during the last few years of that program, which ended in 2009. The European program ASCAT has replaced that now, and these new data are available in graphic format and in GRIB format. To my knowledge the only two packaged apps that can both download and display this data are Expedition and LuckGrib. Without these apps, you can download the files yourself and view them in Panoply. We have a video on how to do that. The latest data files are not large as they only include the latest passes. ASCAT wind is the truth meter for any forecast.
We do not have a video demo of this powerful tool because at the moment (early Feb, 2021) the data are not available. There is some technical snag going on. This is the first time we have seen this in years. We should note, however, that the GRIBed ASCAT data, since its inception nearly 15 years ago, has always been labeled "experimental," which distinguishes it from "operational." The latter are intended to be guaranteed; the former are specifically not. I will update this when it gets fixed.
We have ways to get this data onto your boat at sea by email request, but before rejuvenating that technology we will wait and hope that the NWS gets this sorted out.
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That concludes this brief overview of GRIB file applications. Please stand by the announcement of a new short online course we will offer on this topic with hands on practical details.
Related topics: The series of articles we have on related topics are in our blog index for Jan and Feb of 2021.
